Insights into the dynamics of wolf occupancy in human-dominated landscapes

Abstract

Among large carnivores, wolves show a remarkable capability to persist in human-dominated landscapes. However, the temporal dynamics of variation in spatial use of these landscapes remains poorly understood. Considering the relevance of spatio-temporal variations of territorial marking on wolf behaviour, either to defend territory boundaries and core areas or to expand into new areas, the location of wolf signs should reflect the dynamics of spatial use. Taking advantage of a long-term non-invasive wolf monitoring dataset spanning from 2005 to 2022 we fit a dynamic occupancy model to investigate the effects of environmental and anthropogenic factors on the dynamics of wolf spatial use in human-dominated landscapes. We focused on two dynamic parameters – colonization and extinction – and developed a wolf habitat suitability map for Iberia. Colonization probability increased with higher altitude, livestock density, and unpaved road density, and with the decrease of burned areas, national-regional, and local road densities. Extinction probability decreased with higher unpaved road density.In addition, we evaluated the wolf range dynamics in Iberia to understand if the ecological traits explained the expansion, stagnation or extinction sites observed since the beginning of the 2000s. Our results contribute to a sound understanding of wolf spatial use in human-dominated landscapes and its ability to adapt to these heterogeneous environments, allowing us to support adequate mitigation measures and conservation actions. The strong influence of livestock on the dynamics of wolf occupancy highlights the need to assess social factors, human dimensions, and direct wolf mortality causes for conflict management associated with livestock depredation.