Insecurity and Welfare: Evidence from County Data

Abstract

Using original survey data collected at the county (commune) level, we examine the relationship between insecurity and welfare in Madagascar. Correcting for unobserved heterogeneity at the commune level, we find that insecurity is associated with lower incomes and health status in all our analysis, and it is associated with lower school enrolment and higher infant mortality in some regressions. Results are robust to the inclusion of shocks potentially affecting both welfare and insecurity. We further find a significant association between insecurity and the provision of certain public services, notably schooling and health care. A similar relationship is found with the placement of development projects. Taken together, the evidence suggests that insecurity is an important determinant of welfare.