Abstract
Large-scale insect migration may cause severe plant diseases and pests which can exert serious impact on agriculture. Predicting the trajectory and destination of insect migration accurately is an effective way to prevent pests. Here, an insect migration trajectory simulation method was proposed with two stages of insect migration, taking off and cruising, considered. First, four criteria based on actual weather condition were proposed to determine the take-off area of the insect migration. Then, a method based on Lagrange diffusion model was proposed to simulate the cruising trajectory. This step needs to combine with the insect orientation strategy and insect trajectory speed which can be, respectively, provided by entomological radar and weather radar. Finally, by comparing the determined take-off area and the simulated insect cruising trajectory with the monitoring results of the weather radar, the effectiveness of the method was verified.
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