Innovative trend pivot analysis method (ITPAM): a case study for precipitation data of Susurluk Basin in Turkey

Abstract

Throughout the geological history of the earth, there have been many climate changes due to natural and external factors. In the past, the changes in climate were caused by natural causes, and today it is primarily caused by human activities. Besides being different climate types, Turkey is among countries that will be affected by climate change induced by global warming. Climate changes in the regions will be affected differently and degrees due to the country’s surroundings by seas, fragmented topography and orographic features. Trend analysis methods are used in many areas such as on various engineering, agriculture, environmental and water resources, especially in climate change impact studies resulting from global warming. When data are analyzed with classical trend analysis methods, forward-looking predictions are generally made as low, medium, high, decreasing and increasing. However, risk classes showing changes between available data sets are not known. Innovative Trend Pivot Analysis Method (ITPAM) determines risk classes by establishing a relationship between data. Furthermore, in this method, increasing and decreasing trend regions are separated into five classes more clearly than classical/traditional trend methods. In this study, Susurluk Basin’s total monthly precipitation data (2006–2017) were analyzed by using ITPAM which the newest trend method. When arithmetic mean analysis results are examined, a significant change is observed between first data set and second data set at two stations (Bandirma and Uludag). When examined at other stations, it is observed that at least one month of almost every station is in 1st degree risk group. When standard deviation analysis results of each station are examined, a significant change is observed between first data set and second data set at many stations. Because while trend class of a point in developed IPTA graph is the medium degree, this point is in 1st risk class in the risk graph.