Infrasound radiated by the Gerdec and Chelopechene explosions: propagation along unexpected paths

Abstract

SUMMARY Infrasound propagation paths through the atmosphere are controlled by the temporally and spatially varying sound speed and wind speed amplitudes. Because of the complexity of atmospheric acoustic propagation it is often difficult to reconcile observed infrasonic arrivals with the sound speed profiles predicted by meteorological specifications. This paper provides analyses of unexpected arrivals recorded in Europe and north Africa from two series of accidental munitions dump explosions, recorded at ranges greater than 1000 km: two explosions at Gerdec, Albania, on 2008 March 15 and four explosions at Chelopechene, Bulgaria, on 2008 July 3. The recorded signal characteristics include multiple pulsed arrivals, celerities between 0.24 and 0.34 km s−1 and some signal frequency content above 1 Hz. Often such characteristics are associated with waves that have propagated within a ground-to-stratosphere waveguide, although the observed celerities extend both above and below the conventional range for stratospheric arrivals. However, state-of-the-art meteorological specifications indicate that either weak, or no, ground-to-stratosphere waveguides are present along the source-to-receiver paths. By incorporating realistic gravity-wave induced horizontal velocity fluctuations into time-domain Parabolic Equation models the pulsed nature of the signals is simulated, and arrival times are predicted to within 30 s of the observed values (<1 per cent of the source-to-receiver transit time). Modelling amplitudes is highly dependent upon estimates of the unknown acoustic source strength (or equivalent chemical explosive yield). Current empirical explosive yield relationships, derived from infrasonic amplitude measurements from point-source chemical explosions, suggest that the equivalent chemical yield of the largest Gerdec explosion was of the order of 1 kt and the largest Chelopechene explosion was of the order of 100 t. When incorporating these assumed yields, the Parabolic Equation simulations predict peak signal amplitudes to within an order of magnitude of the observed values. As gravity wave velocity perturbations can significantly influence both infrasonic arrival times and signal amplitudes they need to be accounted for in source location and yield estimation routines, both of which are important for explosion monitoring, especially in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.