Abstract
With the rapid development of information communication technology and the Internet, information spillover between cities in real estate markets is becoming more frequent. The influence of information spillover in real estate markets is becoming more and more prominent. However, the current research of information spillover between cities is still relatively insufficient. In view of this research gap, this paper builds a research framework on the information conduction effect in the real estate markets of 10 Chinese cities by using Baidu search data, text mining and principal component analysis and analyzes the information interaction and dynamic influence of the real estate markets in each city by using the vector autoregressive model empirically. The results show that the information interaction among the real estate markets in each city has a network pattern and there is a significant two-way information spillover effect in most cities. When the “information distance” becomes closer, the information interaction between the markets of the cities becomes closer and it is easier for cities to influence each other. The results help to explain the information spillover mechanism behind the house price spillover and to improve the ability to predict and analyze the information spillover process in real estate markets.
Highlights
In the two decades since the beginning of the new century, the boom and bust of the real estate market has aroused heated discussions in academic circles, especially in China’s real estate market
The house price spillover effect leads to housing price fluctuations dependent on local factors and influenced by other regional factors, which poses a new challenge to the analysis and prediction of price trends and interactions in the real estate market
Principal component analysis and other methods, this paper quantified the information spillover between real estate markets by constructing a comprehensive index to measure the degree of interest in real estate market information of each city and examined the correlation and cause–effect relationship between the degree of interest in real estate market information of different cities
Summary
In the two decades since the beginning of the new century, the boom and bust of the real estate market has aroused heated discussions in academic circles, especially in China’s real estate market. Drawing on the method of constructing public attention, we use Internet search data to construct an information attention index and examine the spillover effect of information attention between urban real estate markets by analyzing the change patterns of information search data in each city to study the sources and paths of information spillover between real estate markets in different cities. In view of the limitations of the above-mentioned studies on the information spillover mechanism of house price spillover, this paper uses Internet search data to construct an information concern index and investigates the information spillover effect of real estate market information among cities. Characterizing market participants’ attention to real estate market information by the search frequency of keywords and building a real estate market information attention index based on it are carried out to conduct research on information spillover among real estate markets
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