Information flows between non-deliverable forward (NDF) and spot markets: Evidence from Korean currency

Abstract

This paper investigates the interrelation and information flows between the Won–Dollar spot and offshore forward, i.e., NDF markets. In particular, this paper focuses on the impact of the reform in the Korean exchange rate systems, which occurred in December 1997 in response to the currency crisis, on the relation between the two markets. Using the augmented GARCH formulation, this paper finds that during the pre-reform period a mean spillover effect exists from the spot to the NDF market but not vice versa, and a volatility spillover effect exists in both directions. After the reform, however, the results are reversed and a mean spillover effect exists from the NDF to the spot market. Also, the volatility spillover effect exists only in the same direction. These findings suggest that there are information flows between the two markets, and the reform has changed the direction of the dynamic relation.