Abstract
Based on specially significant emergencies, as Tianjin Port, “8 cdot 12” large fire and explosion accidents and other practical cases, we have a scientific modeling for decision-making process and identify the risk that complex large group decision-makers’ preference differences lead to in the process. We propose a new risk measure combined with information entropy theory to measure risk in clustering. Risk due to the complexity of appetite caused in the decision-making process is quantificationally computed, and the size of the risk helps determine the results of the final preference information assembly, whereby the program order. Finally, numerical example illustrates the effectiveness of the method.
Highlights
Major emergencies generally refer to the accidents occurring in a certain time and region and causing great losses of life and property, such as the Tianjin Port “8 · 12” fire and explosion incident
This paper considers the risk caused by multiple complex preferences in large group decision-making process
We proposed a method of measuring the risk of large group decision-making which focuses on the risk resulting from distribution of the decision-making rights, by calculating the degree of uncertainty with the information entropy theory (Xinlei 2015; Fleischhacker and Fok 2015)
Summary
Major emergencies generally refer to the accidents occurring in a certain time and region and causing great losses of life and property (http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn/2007-04/ 20/content_232858.htm), such as the Tianjin Port “8 · 12” fire and explosion incident. In the study of the risk of major emergencies, the general focus is the risk caused by the emergency disposal taken at the incident scene. When psychological factors are considered to deal with the risk of decision-making according to the prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky 1979), regret theory (Bell 1982), etc., it means that the impact is taken into account that individual preferences have on the results of selection. This paper considers the risk caused by multiple complex preferences in large group decision-making process. Since the major participant involved in decision-making is mainly the government, this risk is similar to the decision risk faced by government in decision-making process.
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