Information effects of monetary policy announcements on oil price

Abstract

If the information held by the central bank is different from that of market participants, then the central bank’s announcement not only affects the view of monetary policy but also the view of economic fundamentals. This study investigates the information effects of monetary policy announcements on oil prices using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model identified by sign restrictions. The sign restrictions rely on the high-frequency linkage between stock prices and interest rates surrounding the policy announcements. We find that a positive central bank information shock, which raises the interest rate by six basis points, leads to a 1.7% increase in oil prices within two months. We also find that central bank information shocks affect oil prices through the finance and expectation channels.