Information diffusion theory-based approach for the risk assessment of meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Basin

Abstract

The Yangtze River Basin is one of the three plain areas in China, and it spans eleven regions and serves as an important economic belt. The Yangtze River Basin is a region with frequent meteorological disasters and is affected by south-east and south-west monsoons. With a dense population, the economy in the middle and lower reaches of the basin has rapidly developed, and the agricultural economy has made significant contributions to China. Therefore, it is of far-reaching significance to study the influence of meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Basin. Using information diffusion theory, this research analyses the impacts of five frequent natural disasters (floods, drought, convective storms, low temperatures, and typhoons) on selected areas from 2001 to 2006 (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan, Tibet, and Qinghai). Three agricultural indicators: affected area (A), covered area (C), and demolished area (D), are adopted to illustrate the economic losses caused by natural disasters. The method based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) framework is used to calculate the weights of the five disaster categories. The results are that Shanghai is severely affected by typhoons; Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Chongqing, Tibet, and Hunan are under the highest pressure of floods; Yunnan and Qinghai are under the strongest influence of droughts. Generally, agriculture production in the Yangtze River Basin is greatly affected by flood and drought disasters. Finally, some suggestions for dealing with meteorological disasters are proposed.