Information diffusion-based risk assessment of natural disasters along the Silk Road Economic Belt in China

Abstract

Abstract The Belt and Road Initiative launched by China has attracted considerable attention. However, little attention has been paid to the risk assessment of natural disasters for rons along the route. Due to the frequency of disasters and harsh natural environment, areas along with the Silk Road Economic Belt are vulnerable to natural disasters. In this study, an evaluation model is proposed involving evaluation indicators, the relative damage calculation and information diffusion theory. The risk of natural disasters including flood, drought, convective storm, and low temperature is respectively assessed by this model. As a result, it is found that the probability of natural disasters is negatively correlated with the relative damage, and the higher the relative damage, the lower the risk probability. Besides, drought has the greatest impact on crop yield among the studying areas, followed by flood. Although the impact of convective storm and low temperature is not as large as the flood and drought, they also occur frequently and cannot be ignored. Furthermore, the empirical studies from Sent Viet Nam and Philippines have demonstrated that our model can be applied into other countries along the Belt and Road to make the risk assessment.