Influences of climate change on the geographical distribution of three potential reservoirs of Chagas and Leishmaniasis from the Yucatan Peninsula

Abstract

AbstractPeromyscus yucatanicus, Heteromys gaumeri and Otonyctomys hatti are small endemic rodents of the Yucatan Peninsula. To understand the ecological and geographic distribution of these rodent species in the region, we used ecological niche modeling (ENM) and reconstructed the historical (Pleistocene), current, and potential impact of climate change (2050), on the spatial suitability areas. According to our models, the three species reduced their coverage from the Pleistocene to the current, but under future scenarios a slight increase of the suitable areas for all of them is predicted. However, the ecological niche of O. hatti is narrow, specialized and different from that of P. yucatanicus or H. gaumeri, which together occupy a relatively similar niche and have substantial overlap in the geographic distribution of suitable habitat. Many regions of the current and potential distribution of O. hatti are not under protection even though it is a threatened species. Our results could be used as an important element to re-evaluate the conservation areas of O. hatti throughout its potential range. Key words: Cricetidae, Ecological Niche, Heteromyidae, MaxEnt, Mexico.