Abstract
Framing effect, which refers to preference reversal due to different descriptions of the same outcome, is examined through risky choice tasks, in which experimental reference point is typically positioned in win-area (situation of lottery). The aim of the conducted study was to examine a framing effect pattern as a function of the level of risk in risky options when experimental reference point is positioned in loss-area (paying a bill). Results show general loss aversion in monetary domain, which is in an accordance with previous studies. Frame influences decisions in the situations when possibility of total loss (level of risk) is perceived as relatively low. Interpretation of these results leads to the conclusion that the probability and reference point determine framing effect. In win-area, frame influences decisions on the highest levels of probability, and, vice-versa, in loss-area, frame influences decisions on the lowest levels of probability. Results confirm notion that risk-aversion is dependent upon a decision-maker’s perception of spending (an investment or a loss). Although observed risk-seeking decisions in negative frame and different decision patterns in loss and win areas can be explained by the model of cumulative prospect-theory, influence of different experimental reference point can not.
Highlights
U istraživanjima dejstva okvira rizičnog izbora se uglavnom primenjuju zadaci u kojima je eksperimentalna referentna tačka (ERT) smeštena u zonu dobitka
Usložnjavanje i odstupanje zadataka od klasičnog problema azijske bolesti promenili su tu sliku, te se u poslednjoj deceniji prošlog veka beleži veliki broj istraživanja koja izveštavaju o nepostojanju efekta okvira (Ganzach & Schul, 1995; Li & Adams, 1995; Schneider, 1992; Shafir, 1993; Sniezek, Pease, & Switzer, 1990; Urbany & Dickson, 1990; Wang, 1996a; Wedell, 1997)
Tversky i Kahneman polaze od toga da pri procenjivanju vrednosti postoji vrednost koja predstavlja normu, u odnosu na koju se ishod vrednuje kao dobitak, odnosno kao gubitak – čime se formira funkcija vrednosti koja je osnova za odlučivanje
Summary
Laboratorija za eksperimentalnu psihologiju, Odeljenje za psihologiju, Filozofski fakultet, Univerzitet u Beogradu. U istraživanjima dejstva okvira rizičnog izbora se uglavnom primenjuju zadaci u kojima je eksperimentalna referentna tačka (ERT) smeštena u zonu dobitka (situacija nagradne igre). Cilj izvedenog istraživanja je bio ispitivanje obrasca efekta okvira u funkciji nivoa verovatnoće prikazanog u zadatku, pri čemu je ERT smeštena u zonu gubitka (situacija naplate računa). Tumačenje dobijenih nalaza u svetlu ranijih istraživanja upućuje na zaključak da nivo verovatnoće i eksperimentalna referentna tačka u interakciji deluju na efekat okvira. Rezultati su u skladu sa dosadašnjim nalazima koji upućuju na zaključak da averzija prema riziku nije jednoznačna i da zavisi od toga da li donosilac odluke trošak opaža kao smanjenje prihoda ili kao gubitak, kao i od količine „spašenog” novca. Ključne reči: efekat okvira, rizično odlučivanje, verovatnoća ishoda, referentna tačka, gubitak.
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