Influence of the Long-Term Temperature Trend on the Number of New Records for Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation in Japan

Tomohito J Yamada,Tsuyoshi Hoshino,Chhay Ngorn Seang

doi:10.3390/atmos11040371

Abstract

Record-breaking precipitation events have been frequent in Japan in recent years. To investigate the statistical characteristics of the frequency of record-breaking events, observations can be compared with the values derived from sampling theory with a stationary state. This study counted the number of record-breaking daily and 3-day total precipitation events at 58 rain-gauge stations in Japan between 1901 and 2018. The average number of record-breaking events over the 118-year period was 5.9 for daily total precipitation, which is larger than the theoretical value of 5.4 derived using the assumption that the climate system over the same period was stationary. Sampling theory was used to incorporate the influence of the long-term temperature trend from the Clausius–Clapeyron relation associated with the saturation vapor pressure. In theory, the long-term temperature trend gives a similar number of observed record-breaking events when the long-term temperature trend is approximately 0.5 Kelvin/100 years.

Highlights

Severe flood events have become frequent in many parts of Japan, since 2014
We explored the long-term trend in temperature that conformed to the actual number of new records for annual maximum daily precipitation and 3-day total precipitation for the 58 rain gauges
This study investigated the number of annual maximum daily and 3-day total precipitation records for 58 rain gauges in Japan between 1901 and 2018

Summary

Introduction

Severe flood events have become frequent in many parts of Japan, since 2014. 28 June 2018 and 8 July 2018, torrential rainfall exceeding 1000 mm associated with the Baiu front caused floods and landslides that killed 237 people; 8 people are still missing [1]. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), this record-breaking heavy rainfall event could have been related to increases in both temperature and water vapor associated with climate change [2]. In the context of global warming, system energy has increased due to ocean warming. Based on land- and ocean-surface data, average global temperatures increased linearly by 0.85 Kelvin from 1880 to 2012 [3], and the period from 1983 to 2012 which was the warmest 30-year period in the Northern. Global temperatures are expected to increase by approximately 1.0

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Conclusion