Influence of SST in Low Latitudes on the Arctic Warming and Sea Ice

Genrikh V. Alekseev,Anastasia E. Vyazilova,Mikhail Yu. Kulakov,Natalia I. Glok,Natalia E. Kharlanenkova

doi:10.3390/jmse9101145

Genrikh V. Alekseev, Anastasia E. Vyazilova + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9101145

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Abstract

Global climate models, focused on projecting anthropogenic warming, have not detected an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) at low latitudes comparable to the observed one. This appears to be one reason for the discrepancy between the model estimates of warming and reduction of the sea ice extent in the Arctic and the observed changes in the climate system. In previous studies, it was shown that short-term manifestations of the impact of low latitudes on the Arctic climate were identified in 2–3 weeks as a result of strengthening of atmospheric circulation patterns. In this paper, for the first time, a climatic relationship was established among an increase in SST, air temperature, and water vapor content at low latitudes, and a decrease in sea ice extent in the Arctic. ECMWF Re-Analysis data (ERA-Interim, ERA5), Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST), sea ice archives of the World Centers NSIDC (USA), and Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (Russia), observations of water temperature in the Kola section (33°30’ E), calculated sea ice parameters using the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute coupled ice-ocean circulation model (AARI–IOCM). Methods of multivariate correlation analysis, calculating spectra and coherence, and creating correlation graphs were used to obtain the results. For the first time, estimates of the effect of heat transport from low to high latitudes on climate change and sea ice extent in the Arctic over the past 40 years have been obtained, explaining a significant part of their variability. The increase in heat transport is affected by an increase in SST at low latitudes, where a significant part of the solar heat is accumulated. Due to the increase in SST, the amount of heat transported by the ocean and the atmosphere from low latitudes to the Arctic increases, leading to an increase in the air temperature, water vapor content, downward longwave radiation at high latitudes, and a decrease in the thickness and extent of winter sea ice. Potential topics include, but are not limited to: the role of heat and moisture transport in the Arctic warming, effect of SST at low latitudes on transports, linkage of warming in low latitudes and in shrinking of the Arctic sea ice.

Highlights

Introduction iationsPrevious studies [1,2,3] showed that the primary contributor to Arctic energy balance during cold periods of the year is atmospheric heat transport from low to high latitudes.in most studies, the connection between an increase in winter air temperature at high latitudes and fluctuations of the total atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic was not detected
Empirical and model estimates indicated a decrease in the total atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic [4,5,6] or even the absence of significant changes in the total heat transport [7,8,9], which is inconsistent with the observed increase in air temperature at high latitudes
The areas of the highest correlation between winter meridional atmospheric heat transport (MAHT) and sea surface temperature (SST) are marked in October in the Atlantic, in February in the Indian

Summary

Introduction

In most studies, the connection between an increase in winter air temperature at high latitudes and fluctuations of the total atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic was not detected. Empirical and model estimates indicated a decrease in the total atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic [4,5,6] or even the absence of significant changes in the total heat transport [7,8,9], which is inconsistent with the observed increase in air temperature at high latitudes. This inflow of heat determines more than 50% of the variability in winter air temperature and more than 40% of the variability in the average annual air temperature, and the inflow of water vapor enhances the greenhouse effect, slowing down the growth of ice thickness in winter and accelerating the onset of melting [11,12,13]

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