Influence of Resource Allocation in PV Technology Development of Japan on the World and Domestic PV Market

Abstract

SUMMARYThis paper analyzes influence of resource allocation in R&D of solar cells in Japan. First, it estimates solar cell price in Japan in the case resource allocation for R&D of crystalline silicon solar cells was not significantly reduced, but maintained almost constant level. For the projection, it does not use experience curve, but models technological progress, price reduction, of solar cell in Japan with a variable technology knowledge stock by excluding mass production effects. Second, solar cell prices in other countries are estimated based on their market share in the global solar cell production. The estimated solar cell price in Japan under the assumed resource allocation decreases by about 30% compared to the actual one and it, therefore, could be competitive to the estimated solar cell prices in China and Taiwan. In this case, Japan could maintain its top market share in the global solar cell production several years longer. Instead of the Japan's Feed‐in Tariff with subsidy, net‐metering without subsidy is enough for keeping almost the same internal rate of return of residential PV systems for new and existing houses. This paper will be helpful to cost‐effective R&D planning by a modeling and simulation approach.