Influence of neutral transport on ion chemistry uncertainties in Titan ionosphere

Abstract

Models of Titan ionospheric chemistry have shown that ion densities depend strongly on the neutral composition. The turbulent diffusion transport conditions, as modeled by eddy coefficients, can spectacularly affect the uncertainty on predicted neutral densities. In order to evaluate the error budget on ion densities predicted by photochemical models, we perform uncertainty propagation of neutral densities by Monte Carlo sampling and assess their sensitivity to two turbulent diffusion profiles, corresponding to the extreme profiles at high altitudes described in the literature. A strong sensitivity of the ion density uncertainties to transport is observed, generally more important than to ion–molecule reaction parameters themselves. This highlights the necessity to constrain eddy diffusion profiles for Titan ionosphere, which should progressively be done thanks to the present and future measurements of the orbiter Cassini.