Influence of model domain size, wind directions and Ekman transport on storm surge development inside the Chesapeake Bay: A case study of extratropical cyclone Ernesto, 2006

Abstract

The Chesapeake Bay is vulnerable to severe flooding caused by hurricanes and strong Northeasters. A 3D storm surge model of the Chesapeake Bay is developed for studying the impact of model domain size, wind directions and Ekman transport on the storm surge in the Chesapeake Bay. The model encompasses the Chesapeake Bay and the US East Coast shelf to reduce the influence of model domain size on surge prediction inside the Chesapeake Bay and to account for both local and remote wind effects. This study used 3D model experiments, with respect to different wind directions, to diagnose the relative influences of the local and remote wind effects and Ekman transport on spatial surge distribution during storm events. The model results confirmed that spatial surge distribution can be well explained by the superposition of two distinct physically driven mechanisms during a storm event: incoming surge wave caused by remote effects and local wind forcings. A large model domain is a necessity for predicting storm surge accurately inside the Chesapeake Bay. The model results suggest that the interactions of the incoming surge propagating into the Bay and the local wind forcing from N and NE directions result in an enhanced setup in the lower to middle portions of the Bay, whereas the superposition of incoming surge and the local wind forcing from S and SE directions enhance the surge in the upper Bay region. A combined northwesterly wind over the middle to upper portions of the Bay and southwesterly wind over the lower Bay can cause a large setdown throughout the entire Bay. The Ekman setup along the coast contributes significantly to the water level variations during storm events. It enhances (reduces) surge inside the Bay under the wind forcings from N and NE (SW, S, and SE) directions.