Influence of meteorological factors on arbo infectious diseases in Guangzhou

Abstract

Objective To analyze the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of arbo infectious disease in Guangzhou, Guangdong province. Methods We collected the incidence data of arbo infectious disease and the meteorological data (including air pressure, temperature, air humidity, rainfall, wind rate and sun hour) in Guangzhou from 2011-2014. The data was analyzed by the methods of correlation analysis and stepwise regression. Results Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that air temperature was positively correlated with the incidence of dengue fever (RR=1.013), scrub typhus (RR=1.013), but negatively correlated with the incidence of hemorrhagic fever (RR=0.998); humidity was negatively correlated with the incidence of dengue fever (RR=0.916); rainfall was negatively correlated with the incidence of dengue fever (RR=0.998); wind rate was negatively correlated with the incidence of dengue fever (RR=0.951); sun hour was positively correlated with the incidence of dengue fever (RR=1.006) and scrub typhus (RR=1.002); but the incidence of leptospirosis had little correlation with all the meteorological factors. The risk of dengue fever was highest when daily mean air temperature was 27.7℃ on lag 0 day (RR=5.95); the risk of scrub typhus was highest when daily mean air temperature was 28.0℃ on lag 5 day (RR=4.20); and the risk of hemorrhagic fever was highest when the daily mean air temperature was 15.2℃(RR=1.00). Conclusion Meteorological factors can influence the incidence of arbo infectious diseases, especially air temperature and air pressure.