Influence of Land Use Land Cover on Cyclone Track Prediction – A Study During Aila Cyclone

K V.S Badarinath,D V Mahalakshmi,Satyaban Bishoyi Ratna

doi:10.2174/1874282301206010033

Abstract

Land-surface processes are one of the important drivers for weather and climate systems over the tropics. Realistic representation of land surface processes in mesoscale models over the region will help accurate simulation of numerical forecasts. The present study examines the influence of Land Use/ Land Cover Change (LULC) on the forecasting of cyclone intensity and track prediction using Mesoscale Model (MM5). Gridded land use/land cover data set over the Indian region compatible with the MM5 model were generated from Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS-P6) Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) for the year 2007-2008. A case study of simulation of ‘Aila’ cyclone has been considered to see the impact of these two sets of LULC data with the use of MM5 model. Results of the study indicated that incorporation of current land use/land cover data sets in mesoscale model provides better forecasting of cyclonic track.

Highlights

Tropical cyclones and associated storm surges at many places across the globe causes loss of human life and property
The land surface roughness forces an asymmetry of the near surface wind by reducing it over the land resulting in large scale asymmetric convergence/divergence along the coast
Numerical simulations were performed by varying the two sets of land use data in the mesoscale model to study its influence on the cyclone track prediction

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Tropical cyclones and associated storm surges at many places across the globe causes loss of human life and property. LULC changes affect the surface wind, temperature and humidity, which in turn affect the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and numerical weather forecasting. Numerical experiments performed with the MM5 model under different surface roughness conditions and moisture conditions suggested that roughness contrast between land and sea modifies the tropical cyclone track [11, 12] (Wong and Chan., 2006; Kimball, 2008). Wong and Chan [11] found that the PBL convergence of the tropical cyclone core could become strongly asymmetric even when the core of cyclone circulation is completely away from the coast They proposed the surface-induced asymmetric convergence as a factor that affects the asymmetric convective activities of the tropical cyclone core. The objective of present study is to understand the influence of land use/land cover in predicting cyclone intensity and track using Mesoscale Model (MM5). The results were compared with model simulation using the US Geological Survey (USGS) LULC data

Model Design

SYNOPTIC DESCRIPTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ‘AILA’

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

CONCLUSIONS