Abstract
A Delft3D morphodynamic model for Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA is used to quantify a plausible range of land change in response to a proposed sediment diversion under a range of environmental drivers. To examine the influence of environmental drivers, such as Mississippi River water hydrographs, mineral and organic sediment loading, sea level rise rates, subsidence, and a projected implementation (or operation) date, 240 multi-decadal (2020–2100) numerical experiments were used. The diversion was assumed to begin operation in 2025, 2030, or 2035. The experiments revealed persistent benefits of the sediment diversion through 2100. Start data of 2025 result in a median net positive land change of 32 km2 by 2100; whereas the 90th, and 10th percentiles are 69 and 10 km2. A delay in the operation date of the diversion to 2030 or 2035 would reduce the net positive land change by approximately 15–20% and 20–30%, respectively.
Highlights
Coastal systems are facing severe challenges due to persistent sea level rise, land subsidence, climate driven changes to the freshwater and sediment riverine inflows to coastal systems [1]
Would the delta/land created by a sediment diversion drown by 2100 due to environmental conditions—at least under severe Sea Level Rise (SLR) rates? Would a delay of implementation of the diversion beyond 2030 severely reduce the land building potential? To respond to these research questions, we constructed an extensive set of numerical experiments to examine the impact of key environmental drivers on the net land change resulting from the implementation of sediment diversions as a restoration strategy
This study focuses on Barataria Bay, Louisiana USA as shown in Figure 1 to evaluate the influence of environmental drivers on restoration strategies
Summary
Coastal systems are facing severe challenges due to persistent sea level rise, land subsidence, climate driven changes to the freshwater and sediment riverine inflows to coastal systems [1]. Restoration approaches have been extensively deployed [5] to enhance the resiliency of the coastal ecosystems against these challenges Examples of these restoration strategies include shoreline protection, ridge restoration, reconnecting rivers to hydrologically severed coastal bays/estuaries, marsh creation, seawalls and wave-attenuation structures. To respond to these research questions, we constructed an extensive set of numerical experiments to examine the impact of key environmental drivers on the net land change resulting from the implementation of sediment diversions as a restoration strategy. Based on a sensitivity analysis along with guidance from the previous modeling efforts, the morphological simulation was ac-
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