INFLUENCE OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS ON THE STRUCTURAL CHANGES OF NATIONAL ECONOMY: AN EXAMPLE OF UKRAINE

Uliana Nikonenko,Serhiy Shevchenko,Viktor Paliukh,Olena Khalina,Yanina Kazyuk

doi:10.3846/bmee.2021.14472

Abstract

Purpose – the purpose of our article is to study structural changes in the national economy using a portfolio model of sectors with different returns and, on this basis, processing the methodology for identifying the current state and instrumental factors of economic policy. Research methodology – the methodology of empirical research includes methods of grouping, abstraction, comparison, systems analysis, synthesis and generalization, graphical methods and regression analysis. To analyze the nature of the relationship between the index of structural changes and the dynamics of GDP, which determines the comparative profitability of the resource and non-resource sectors and the current position of the current structure relative to the equilibrium value, we used error-corrected models (ECMs). Findings – using regression models with error correction, a favourable long- and short-term relationship between structural changes in favour of non-resource exports and Ukraine’s GDP has been empirically confirmed. Using the index of structural changes, considering the ratio of raw materials and non-raw materials exports, the necessity of applying administrative measures is substantiated. Research limitations – the study concerned mainly the national economy of Ukraine, but in the future, attention should be paid to the application of the results of our study in other countries of Eastern Europe. In the future, the results obtained can be adapted for other countries of the world. The research was based on the use of specific mathematical methods, and not all mathematical possibilities were used. Practical implications – the model can be used in the practical activities of state economic structures In the future, it is possible to change key indicators and further expand the field of use of the model. Originality/Value – the novelty of the study lies in the development of a methodology for identifying the current state and instrumental factors of economic policy that can speed up economic growth based on favourable structural shifts (in favour of the non-resource export sector).

Highlights

The aim of this work is to study the structural changes in the Ukrainian economy using a portfolio model of sectors and, on this basis, processing the methodology for identifying the current state and instrumental factors of economic policy, which provides for three stages: 1) the choice of the structural equilibrium index, since certain industries combine raw materials and non-raw materials; 2) identification of the structural state of the economy; 3) an assessment of the factors of economic policy, capable of accelerating economic growth based on favorable structural changes
We investigate the structural changes of the national economy, which mean qualitative changes in the structure of domestic exports, taking into account the above factors, which will increase the level of GDP
To improve the structural proportions in the Ukrainian economy, it is worth: maintaining a depreciation of the exchange rate, but this does not mean the devaluation of the monetary unit is advisable, but rather the need to maintain low inflation to limit the supply of monetary mass and accumulation of external public debt and avoid crises

Summary

Introduction

The research task is to explain the structural changes in the Ukrainian economy using a sectoral model with two sectors – raw materials and non-raw materials. We are talking about the nature of the relationship between the selected structural index and the dynamics of GDP, which determines the comparative profitability of the raw materials and non-resource sectors and the current position of the current structure relative to the equilibrium value. In such a context, error correction models (ECMs) provide a convenient toolkit. The set of independent variables should contain variables that characterize the quality of economic policy and the scale of institutional change (error correction models – ECMs)

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion