Influence of exogenous risk-inducing factors on the incidence of intestinal infections in the population of the territory of intensive tourism

Abstract

Introduction. The development of tourism in regions with an insufficient level of social infrastructure and a low self-cleaning capacity of the environment poses a danger due to the gain in infectious diseases. The level of water in Lake Baikal may determine the potential for dilution of chemical and microbiological contaminants in the coastal zone.
 Materials and methods. The incidence of acute intestinal infections (AII) was studied in the area located on the south-eastern shore of the lake. Baikal (2016–2022). There were assessed risk-inducing factors including climate, water level of the lake, number of tourists, water quality. The values of relative risk, etiological share, economic damage were calculated. 
 Results. The incidence was 630.8 (455.9–781.9) in 0–14 years children, 16.0 (4.8–48.5) cases per 100 thousand population in people over 15 years old. The relative risk in children in the year of low water content of the lake. Baikal RR=1.498 (CI 1.067–2.102). The total level of economic damage caused by additional cases of rotavirus infection in children amounted to 4,528.960 of rubles with high water content, and 5,625.740 of rubles with low water content. 
 Limitations of the study relate to the inability to accurately estimate the number of tourists visiting the region; the inflation rate is not taken into account when calculating the economic damage. 
 Conclusion. The AII incidence in the children’s population of the coastal region is characterized by an increase in the years of water content in Lake Baikal, which differs from the optimal level, with changes in risk-inducing factors.