Abstract

We investigate the case of disagreement between predicted and observed in-situ parameters of the recurrent high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs) existing for Carrington rotation (CR) 2118 (December 2011) in comparison with CRs 2117 and 2119. The HSSs originated at the Sun from a recurrent polar coronal hole (CH) expanding to mid-latitudes, and its area in the central part of the solar disk increased with the rotation number. This part of the CH was responsible for the equatorial flank of the HSS directed to the Earth. The time and speed of arrival for this part of the HSS to the Earth were predicted by the hierarchical empirical model based on EUV-imaging and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge ENLIL semi-empirical replace model and compared with the parameters measured in-situ by model. The predicted parameters were compared with those measured in-situ. It was found, that for CR 2117 and CR 2119, the predicted HSS speed values agreed with the measured ones within the typical accuracy of ±100 km s−1. During CR 2118, the measured speed was on 217 km s−1 less than the value predicted in accordance with the increased area of the CH. We suppose that at CR 2118, the HSS overtook and interacted with complex ejecta formed from three merged coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with a mean speed about 400 km s−1. According to simulations of the Drag-based model, this complex ejecta might be created by several CMEs starting from the Sun in the period between 25 and 27 December 2011 and arriving to the Earth simultaneously with the HSS. Due to its higher density and magnetic field strength, the complex ejecta became an obstacle for the equatorial flank of the HSS and slowed it down. During CR 2117 and CR 2119, the CMEs appeared before the arrival of the HSSs, so the CMEs did not influence on the HSSs kinematics.

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