Abstract
Climate variability affects human health by influencing processes that facilitate transmission of infectious diseases. This study aimed at investigating the influence of temperature and precipitation variability on the prevalence of Dengue fever in Mandera County from 1985 to 2014. 196 randomly selected respondents drawn from households within three health facilities’ catchments were interviewed. Meteorological data was used to describe climate variability while Dengue fever was described using data obtained from health records at El Wak Sub County Hospital, Kotulo Health centre and ADRA Hospital. Results showed that temperature significantly varied (t = 7.60, DF = 29, p = 0.0001). Precipitation equally varied (t = 5.660, DF = 29, p = 0.0001). Overall temperature increase was by 0.53°C while annual precipitation amounts increased by 77.1mm. There was an insignificant correlation in Dengue fever occurrence with climate variability (r value of 0.087). The study concluded that climate variability was not significant in Dengue fever transmission in Mandera South Sub County. Keywords: arboviral disease, climate variability, dengue fever, impact, pathogen, prevalence DOI : 10.7176/JEES/9-3-06 Publication date :March 31 st 2019
Highlights
It is projected that the global average temperature will rise by between 1.1-6.4oC by 2099 as compared to 19801999 (IPCC, 2007)
Results showed that Mandera South Sub County recorded an increase in precipitation amounts of 77.1mm between 1985 and 2014, but with annual variations depicting climate variability
Results of this study showed that Mandera South Sub County is experiencing climate variability, similar to the rest of the country and probably the rest of the world
Summary
It is projected that the global average temperature will rise by between 1.1-6.4oC by 2099 as compared to 19801999 (IPCC, 2007). This rise is projected to seriously impact on human health (Costello, 2009). It will be a risk factor for Dengue fever which is becoming more endemic in tropical regions (Shuman, 2010). The prevalence of Dengue fever generally peaks at the onset and immediately after the rainy season (Degallier et al, 2012). Rainfall and temperature are suggested to majorly influence the survival of Aedes aegypti and the potential occurrence of Dengue fever outbreaks (Patz, 2005)
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