The Influence of Climate Change and Variability on Aircraft Take-off and Landing Performance; a Case Study of the Abeid Amani Karume International Airport-Zanzibar

Abstract

Climate change (CC) and variability have been world widely reported to pose number of risks in aviation industry including accidents, astray, and other operational difficulties. The impact of weather on landing and take-off performances has been several times experienced at Abeid Amani Karume International Airport (AAKIA); however, the influence of climate change and variability to the aircraft performance needs to be assessed. Thus, this study investigated the influence of climate change and variability on aircrafts take-off and landing performances. Specifically, the study investigated; i) the influence of climate change on Take-off Distance Required (TODR) and Maximum Take-off Mass (MTOM) for different types of aircraft; ii) the influence of climate variability to the aircraft landing performance on light, medium and heavy aircraft and lastly, iii) the study investigated the seasonal and annual variability on aircraft landing performance due to climate variability. The datasets used in this study include the eight years (2014-2021), aircraft operational records (diversion and missed approach events) and Aviation Routine Weather Reports (METAR) records which were utilized as the indicators for landing performance, the long-term (1990-2020) annual maximum temperatures (Tmax) which was used to determine the TODR and MTOM. Statistical tools including mean, percentage changes, correlations, regression, and the chi-square test were used for analysis and hypotheses testing. The results revealed that light and medium aircraft categories were significantly most affected on diversion events as compared to the heavy categories; however, for the missed approach events the impact was vice versa. Moreover, the seasonal and annual variability on diversion and missed approach events were significantly different (at p ≤ 0.001). As for the take-off performance, results show that the TODR and MTOM were significantly increasing and decreasing (at p ≤ 0.001), based on increasing air temperatures. Therefore, the study concludes that the changing climate has significantly affected aircraft by increasing the TODR and decreasing the MTOM, while the climate variability has significantly affected landing performance by influencing the diversion and missed approach events. Thus, the study recommends (i) further research works including the feasibility study on runway extension for the safety of future aircraft operations at the AAKIA and (ii) proper maintenance and improvement of the Instrumental Landing Systems (ILS) as an adaptation measures to the landing aircraft during bad weather events.