Influence of climate change on hydrological process in the upper reaches of Shiyang River: A case study of the Xiying River, China

Abstract

Climate change is the dominant factor affecting the hydrological process, it is of great significance to simulate and predict its influence on water resources management, socio-economic activities, and sustainable development in the future. In this paper, the Xiying River Basin was taken as the study area, China Atmospheric Assimilation Driven Data Set (CMADS) and observation data from the Jiutiaoling station were used to simulate runoff of the SWAT model and calibrate and verify model parameters. On this basis, runoff change of the basin under the future climate scenario of CMIP6 was predicted. Our research shows that: (1) The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff increase of the Xiying River are 89.17% and 10.83%, respectively. Climate change is the most important factor affecting runoff change of the Xiying River. (2) In these three different emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in CMIP6 climate model, the average temperature increased by 0.61, 1.09 and 1.74 °C, respectively, in the Xiying River Basin from 2017 to 2050. Average precipitation increased by 14.36, 66.88, and 142.73 mm, respectively, and runoff increased by 15, 24, and 35 million m3, respectively. The effect of climate change on runoff will continue to deepen in the future.