Abstract
Abstract The driving effect of global climate change (CC) on the ecohydrological process was quantitatively evaluated. Based on Geographic Information System technology, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model suitable for watershed hydrological simulation was constructed to study the impact of climate and land-use change on runoff in the Second Songhua River (SSR) basin. Within the base period (1965–2010), the annual average temperature (AAT) of the SSR basin is 4.2 °C. Under the CC scenario representing concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5, the AAT of the watershed increased to 5.4 °C between 2020 and 2049. Under the CC scenarios of RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, the temperature in the watershed increased by 1.1 and 0.2 °C in June, respectively. The research results indicate that (1) there is a positive correlation between runoff and precipitation in the SSR watershed, and a negative correlation with temperature; (2) when the precipitation remains unchanged, the temperature increases by 1 °C and the runoff decreases by 7.2%; and (3) when the temperature remains constant, for every 10% increase in precipitation, the runoff increases by 30.5%. This study provides the scientific basis for water resource planning and sustainable development in the Northeast region and has important practical significance.
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