Abstract
Deformation of the ground surface at active volcanoes provides information about magma movements at depth. Improved seafloor deformation measurements between 2011 and 2015 documented a fourfold increase in magma supply and confirmed that Axial Seamount's eruptive behavior is inflation-predictable, probably triggered by a critical level of magmatic pressure. A 2015 eruption was successfully forecast on the basis of this deformation pattern and marked the first time that deflation and tilt were captured in real time by a new seafloor cabled observatory, revealing the timing, location, and volume of eruption-related magma movements. Improved modeling of the deformation suggests a steeply dipping prolate-spheroid pressure source beneath the eastern caldera that is consistent with the location of the zone of highest melt within the subcaldera magma reservoir determined from multichannel seismic results.
Highlights
Seven months in advance of an April 2015 eruption at Axial Seamount, we made a successful forecast that it would occur within a 15-month time window, on the basis of long-term deformation monitoring
We used the mobile pressure recorders (MPRs) results from September 2013 to August 2015 for the net vertical displacement at seafloor benchmarks in and near the summit caldera to model the source of the inflation and deflation signals (Fig. 1)
The best-fitting deformation source for the inter-eruption period between the previous MPR surveys is very similar, a steeply dipping prolate spheroid with the major axis dipping at 75° in the direction of 290°, major and minor axes of 2.2 and 0.33 km, and a depth of 3.77 km
Summary
Inflation-predictable behavior and co-eruption deformation at Axial Seamount Seven months in advance of an April 2015 eruption at Axial Seamount, we made a successful forecast that it would occur within a 15-month time window, on the basis of long-term deformation monitoring.
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