Inflation in the United States: Will it Come Back?

Abstract

This article covers the major trends and changes in consumer price development in the US economy during 2022-2023. The major incentive for American inflation is a great increase in the budget deficit and public debt. The author considers that further growth of federal debt will become an obstacle to the problem of inflation targeting. Presently Federal Reserve System is financing government debt by purchasing Treasure notes. To provide these activities FRS has to increase money volume in circulation. In fact this monetary policy has significant negative effects on US inflation. Traditional corporations have also some possibilities to increase their sale prices and to accelerate inflation. Oil prices, which have tendency to grow, are considered to add some value to current inflation. In the Section 2 the major points of Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) are being analyzed. IRA is considered to be a remarkable law which aims to curb inflation by reducing budget deficit and investing into domestic energy production. According to the Budget Office, this Act will raise 738 billion dollars and authorize 391 billion dollars on energy change and 238 billion dollars in deficit reduction and tax reform. The law includes a large expansion and modernization efforts for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). In the Section 3 the problem of imported inflation is being analyzed. The estimates prove that in 2015-2022 U.S. export pr ices grew much faster than import prices. In the result US terms of trade improved and in fact United States exported inflation trends to other countries. Expensive dollar accelerated this process.