Inflation Dynamics, Globalization and Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence from Selected South and Southeast Asian Countries

Abstract

The present study investigated the impact of monetary policy and globalization on inflation. The study utilized an updated measure of globalization along with two other dimensions i.e., de facto and de jure measure of globalization to examine the nature of the globalization-inflation relationship. It measures the impact of monetary policy variables on inflation, ignoring random shocks as these are considered minor fractions for the inconsistency of the policy instruments. The study also used the Hodrick Prescott filter to calculate the domestic output gap to assess the notion that the changes in the domestic output gap are still relevant to inflation variations in the presence of globalization. Structural modeling of dynamic heterogeneous panel data estimation technique, which accounts for endogeneity and serial correlation issues has also been employed. The results of the study confirm that both global and domestic factors have significant and descriptive power for domestic inflation. Furthermore, the interest rate is found to be a major nominal anchor to affect inflation. The results of panel causality showed that there exists bidirectional causality from inflation to interest rate, while mixed results were found for analyzing monetary aggregates, exchange rate, globalization, and domestic output gap relationships.