Abstract
The study introduced a special case of the Poisson-Generalized Gamma empirical Bayes model to survey states in Nigeria with a higher risk of fatal accidents. Monte Carlo error and stationary dynamic trace plots were used to validate model convergence and accuracy of the posterior estimates. The main results included the disease mappings that revealed Ebonyi had the highest risk of road vehicular fatal accidents in Nigeria with a relative risk estimate of 1.4120 while Abuja had the lowest risk with a relative risk estimate 0.5711. In terms of geopolitical region, the risk of road vehicular fatal accident is highest in South-South region with a relative risk estimate of 1.1850 while North-Central had the lowest risk with a relative risk estimate of 0.7846. The study is to aid planned government programs to ameliorate vehicular road carnage in Nigeria.
Highlights
1 The alarming rate of road vehicular accidents in Nigeria is becoming worrisome to individuals and government alike
The special case of Poisson-Generalized Gamma (PGG) empirical Bayes (EB) model is applied to reported road vehicular fatal accidents in Nigeria by states
The analyses have shown that South-East, North-Central and North-West regions have a lower risk of road vehicular fatal accidents while South-South, South-West and North-East regions have a higher risk of road vehicular fatal accidents
Summary
As noted in the WHO (2018) report, road accident is one of the leading causes of death in the world. The risk of dying by road accident injury is highest in the African region with 26.6 traffic deaths per 100,000 people and lowest in the European region with 9.3 traffic deaths per 100,000 people. Nigeria statistics is succinctly put at 20.5 traffic deaths per 100,000 people and 615.4 traffic deaths per 100,000 motor vehicles, with a total fatality of 46,475 between 2013 and 2019 (NBS, 2019). These figures placed Nigeria among the highest in the rate of road accidents in the world and traffic deaths per inhabitants
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