Regional determinants of road traffic accidents in Nigeria: identifying risk areas in need of intervention

Abstract

Road traffic accidents have become an issue of great concern in recent times in Nigeria. Several intervention efforts have been designed to reduce the accident rates and traffic mortality levels. This article analyses regional variations in road traffic accidents in Nigeria and their causes. Data on road traffic accidents for year 2003 to 2007, economic development, traffic density, urbanization, population size, and road infrastructure were assembled and analyzed using stepwise linear regression. Besides the national analysis, four separate regression models were estimated for northern, southern, urban and rural Nigeria. Results indicate that the length of asphalt concrete roads was a significant factor in road accidents at the national (R2 = 19.7%; p = 0.006) and rural scales (R2 = 35.8%; p = 0.011). Equally significant was the length of federal roads in urban (R2 = 41.5%; p = 0.011) and southern Nigeria (R2 = 50.1%; p = 0.001). Meanwhile, in northern Nigeria, urbanization and the length of asphalt concrete roads appeared to be dominant factors in road traffic accidents (R2 = 54.3%; p = 0.001). Given the observed geographical differences, this study recommends the design of area-specific strategies for the prevention and control of road traffic accidents in Nigeria.