Infectious Diseases Spreading on an Adaptive Metapopulation Network

Shanshan Feng,Zhen Jin

doi:10.1109/access.2020.3016016

Shanshan Feng, Zhen Jin

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2020.3016016

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Journal: IEEE Access	Publication Date: Jan 1, 2020
Citations: 13	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: North University of China, Shanxi University

Abstract

When an emerging acute infectious disease occurs, travel restrictions, one-way or two-way, are often taken to prevent its global spread. In order to investigate the impact of two-way travel restrictions in the global spread of infectious diseases, this paper defines a risk indicator according to the relative infection density. Based on this risk indicator and an intervention time on two-way travel restrictions, we define an adaptive metapopulation network. Then a susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) metapopulation model on this network is proposed. The mathematical analysis shows that the basic reproduction number is independent of human mobility. Furthermore, this essay compares the effects of one-way travel restrictions and two-way travel restrictions on the global spread of infectious diseases. It is shown that the adaptive metapopulation network under two-way travel restrictions can effectively suppress the global spread of infectious diseases. We also obtain a threshold of risk indicator to prevent the global spread of infectious diseases by simulations. The earlier the intervention time on two-way travel restriction is, the better to curb the global spread of the disease. Even if two-way travel restrictions are not implemented, controlling the mobility of infectious persons would help prevent the global spread of the disease. This work will throw lights on the prevention and control of the globally spreading of an emerging infectious disease.

Highlights

Whether in the past or at present, infectious diseases have always been serious threats to human life and health
This paper focuses on the problem of two-way travel restrictions on all neighbor subpopulations, and puts forward a susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) metapopulation model to study the global transmission of an emerging infectious disease
Based on the risk indicator and intervention time for two-way travel restrictions T0, this essay defined an adaptive metapopulation network and proposed an SIR metapopulation model on this network to investigate the issue of two-way travel restrictions on all neighbor subpopulations

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Whether in the past or at present, infectious diseases have always been serious threats to human life and health. One of the major models to study the global spread of infectious diseases is a metapopulation network model. One way to prevent the global spread of infectious diseases is to restrict travel, which is a problem of broken links in metapopulation networks. This paper focuses on the problem of two-way travel restrictions on all neighbor subpopulations, and puts forward a susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) metapopulation model to study the global transmission of an emerging infectious disease. Based on the risk indicator ρ and the intervention time on two-way travel restriction T0, we define an adaptive metapopulation network (see Fig. 2). The adaptive metapopulation network is equivalent to two-way travel restrictions on all neighbor subpopulations. Results show that adaptive metapopulation networks can effectively curb the global spread of infectious diseases.

ADAPTIVE METAPOPULATION NETWORK MODELING

THE BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER

FINAL SIZE

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION RESULTS

THE COMPARISON OF ONE-WAY AND TWO-WAY TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS

Findings

CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION