The Impact of Urban Form on the Spread of Infectious Diseases: Focusing on COVID-19 Outbreak in the Seoul Metropolitan Area

Abstract

COVID-19 is raising awareness about the risk of the global spread of infectious diseases. As a result, various measures have been proposed to reduce the spread of infectious diseases. This study attempts to analyze the impact of the urban form on the spread of infectious diseases and suggests an urban planning approach to prevent their spread. Recently, studies have shown that confirmed cases increase in high-density, compact cities, but this seems to be the result of simply looking at urban forms in terms of density. Therefore, this study attempted to examine urban forms by considering not only density but also accessibility, self-sufficiency, and land-use mixes. In this study, a structural equation model is used to illustrate the spread of infectious diseases in relation to urban forms, with variables representing the number of confirmed cases. This research focuses on Seoul and Gyeonggi-do, two densely populated, urbanized areas in South Korea, to study the relationship between urban spatial structures and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. The study found that urban forms prone to sprawl are vulnerable to the spread of infectious diseases. Moreover, the higher a region’s self-sufficiency and the denser and more compact the cities, the more resistant they are to infectious diseases. This means that it is necessary for future urban planning to consider aiming for dense, compact designs in order to create cities resistant to infectious diseases, such as COVID-19. Moreover, it has been determined that cities will be able to prevent the spread of infectious diseases if urban plans, such as community plans, are promoted to enhance self-sufficiency.