Industrial structure transformation and provincial heterogeneity characteristics evolution of air pollution: Evidence of a threshold effect from China

Abstract

As an important link between human economic activities and air quality, industrial structure is the key factor in resolving the contradiction between economic development and the environment. By constructing a panel threshold model between China's air pollution and the industrial structure, this study analyzes and explores how industrial transformation influences air pollution as well as its provincial heterogeneity characteristics evolution. The results show that industrial structure has a three-stage influential mechanism on NOx pollution and PM2.5 pollution, and a two-stage influential mechanism on SO2 pollution. A decrease in proportion of the secondary industry output in GDP can significantly reduce NOx pollution and SO2 pollution. Industrial structure can change the effects of economic development on air pollution. China’ s industrial structure has been continuously upgraded in the past decade. In the process of industrial structure transformation, energy consumption has always been a major factor in aggravating air pollution, whereas technological innovation has been an important way to reduce air pollution. Urbanization is another major factor exacerbating air pollution in the provinces where the service industry has always dominated the local economy. Based on the above research, the government should formulate corresponding industrial structure adjustment policies to reduce air pollution according to the provincial heterogeneity of industrial structure affecting different pollutants.