How do resource dependence and technological progress affect carbon emissions reduction effect of industrial structure transformation? Empirical research based on the rebound effect in China.

Abstract

Under the guidance of carbon peak and carbon neutral targets, the industrial structure transformation is vital for carbon emissions reduction in China. However, there is a rebound effect of carbon emissions during the industrial structure transformation. Resource dependence and technological progress have significant impacts on industrial structure transformation and its carbon reduction effect. This paper explores how industrial structure transformation under resource dependence causes the rebound effect from a technological progress perspective. The key results indicate that (1) resource dependence distorts the carbon emissions reduction effect of industrial structure transformation; (2) with the development of technology, the industrial structure upgrading under resource dependence could cause an increase on carbon emissions at the beginning, but the increase would be weakened subsequently, displaying a two-stage feature; (3) the industrial structure rationalization under resource dependence reduces carbon emissions at first, but the reduction would be weakened as the technology develops, then industrial structure's rationalization shows an insignificant impact on carbon emissions, and finally reduces carbon emissions again, presenting a four-stage characteristic; (4) environmental protection technology can correct the distortion effect of resource dependence on the industrial structure rationalization and amplify the industrial structure rationalization's reduction effects on carbon emissions; (5) with the development of energy-saving technology, industrial structure rationalization has a paradoxical impact on carbon emissions, the industrial structure rationalization first reduces, then increases, and finally reduces carbon emissions, indicating an inverted "N" relationship. Finally, policy recommendations for carbon emissions reduction are proposed from the perspective of industrial structure transformation and technological progress.