Industrial dynamics in the ICT technological paradigm: The case of Portugal, 1986–2018

Abstract

Following Schumpeter, several scholars have shown that development follows long-term waves. These waves are prompted by radical innovations, which, until their full potential is exhausted, spread through incremental innovations and continuous learning and imitation processes. However, the discontinuity of technological progress often goes unnoticed in current debates on productivity slowdown, declining business dynamism and increasing market concentration. Our study, based on extensive microeconomic data from 1986 to 2018, examines how the ICT revolution has influenced business dynamism in Portugal. The Bai–Perron estimates show two structural breaks in industrial dynamics: an upswing in 1993 and a downturn in 2003. Our research also shows that during the late 20th century creative destruction was mainly driven by the expanding ICT sector. After 2003, however, firm dynamics became less turbulent, with less entry and job reallocation. Moreover, despite the increasing performance of a typical high-growth young firm, the incidence of startups has declined in the new century. Our results, therefore, suggest that reduced entry and increased exit risk have likely undermined the long-term disruptive potential of transformative entrepreneurship.