Induced seismicity traffic light protocol at the Alberta No. 1 geothermal project site

Abstract

The Alberta No. 1 Geothermal Project (ABNo1) is a renewable energy project in Canada; it will use deep geothermal energy for electrical power generation and direct-use thermal power. However, concerns regarding induced seismicity must be addressed. This study proposes implementing the Traffic Light Protocol (TLP) as a risk management tool for conventional geothermal projects in Alberta. We focus on determining an appropriate TLP red-light threshold, employing a risk-informed approach for the Leduc Formation - one of the geothermal reservoirs proposed for development by ABNo.1. The recommended red-light threshold of ML 3.5 signifies the level at which operations must be halted (i.e., the red light) to mitigate nuisance impact, damage, and personal risk. The recommended yellow light threshold of ML 1.5 signifies the level at which assessment of injection operations must be re-assessed, the regulator must be informed, and a risk mitigation analysis must be undertaken to re-evaluate operations to keep induced seismicity at a low magnitude. Comparison to induced seismicity near the project site highlights key factors requiring consideration during the project's design phase: injection volume, chances of basement fault reactivation, and delayed seismic activity onset. Effective mitigation entails controlling injection rate, continuous fluid balance monitoring, allowing gradual and appropriate pressure dissipation rates, and potentially the use of tracer tests to deconvolve pathways. This study provides insights for stakeholders involved in injection projects, aiding risk mitigation and ensuring safe, sustainable energy extraction while also prioritizing the local community's well-being.