Individual-Level Exposure to Residential Redlining in 1940 and Mortality Risk

Abstract

Historic redlining, the practice by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) of systematically denying credit to borrowers in neighborhoods that were inhabited by primarily African American individuals, has been associated with poor community outcomes, but the association with individual risk of death is not clear. To examine if exposure to residential redlining practices by HOLC in 1940 is associated with increased risk of death later in life. The study linked individuals who resided within HOLC-graded neighborhoods (defined as Census Enumeration Districts) in 1940 with administrative death records data. The study estimated hazard ratios as well as age-specific life expectancy gaps (at age 55, 65, and 75 years) for HOLC grading exposure. This was done using methods that adapted standard parametric survival analysis to data with limited mortality coverage windows and incomplete observations of survivors. The analysis sample consisted of 961 719 individual-level observations across 13 912 enumeration districts within 30 of the largest US cities (based on 1940 population counts) across 23 states. Data were analyzed between December 1, 2023, and September 4, 2024. The exposure was HOLC grade based on historic HOLC maps, with A representing "best" or creditworthy areas; B, "still desirable"; C, "definitely declining"; and D, "hazardous" areas not worthy of credit (ie, redlined), and the main outcome was age at death from the Social Security Numident file. The 961 719-person individual sample had a mean (SD) age of 19.26 (9.26) years in 1940 and a mean (SD) age at death of 76.83 (9.22) years. In a model adjusted for sex (52.48% female; 47.52% male), race and ethnicity (7.36% African American; 92.64% White), and latent place effects, a 1-unit lower HOLC grade was associated with an 8% (hazard ratio, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.07-1.09]) increased risk of death. At age 65 years, these hazard differentials translated into an estimated life expectancy gap of -0.49 (95% CI, -0.56 to -0.43) years for each 1-unit decrease of the HOLC grade. This study found that individuals who resided within redlined neighborhoods in 1940 had lower life expectancy later in life than individuals who resided within other HOLC-graded areas.