Individual and Contextual Influences on Public Support for Military Spending in NATO

Abstract

ABSTRACT What factors at the individual and country levels influence public support for increased levels of military spending and related foreign policy preferences in NATO countries? Specifically, what individual-level characteristics (e.g., view of NATO) are associated with support for increasing military spending within the NATO alliance, and what country characteristics are associated with shifts in public opinion due to changes in the contextual environment within each country (e.g., military spending/economic growth)? Answers to these questions fill an important gap in the literature by investigating the domestic constraints that influence a country’s response to questions of ‘burden-sharing’ and free riding within NATO. This study examines how citizens’ preferences respond to their domestic political environment, and whether this behavior aligns with the ‘guns versus butter’ trade-off. Findings from a multilevel model combining country-level data with survey data from 13 NATO member countries between 2004–2012 suggest that individuals who view NATO as essential are consistently more likely to support increases in military spending, but changes in the contextual environment, such as high levels of military spending or high levels of economic growth, alter the preferences of individuals in a manner that follows what is known about the trade-offs citizens make between ‘guns versus butter.’