Indirect seismic economic loss assessment and recovery evaluation using nighttime light images – application for Wenchuan earthquake

Jianfei Wang,Jingfa Zhang,Dan Zhou,Lixia Gong,Qiang Li

doi:10.5194/nhess-18-3253-2018

Abstract

Abstract. Indirect seismic economic loss not only impacts regional economic recovery policies but is also related to economic assistance at the national level. Due to cross-regional economic activities and the difficulty of obtaining data, it is difficult for the indirect economic loss survey to cover all economic activities. However, nighttime light in an area can reflect the economic activity of the region. This article focuses on the indirect economic losses caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and evaluation of the progress of restoration and reconstruction based on nighttime light images. First, the functional relationship between GDP and nighttime light parameters is established based on pre-earthquake data. Next, the indirect loss of the earthquake is evaluated by the nighttime light attenuation in the disaster area after the earthquake. Then, the capacity recovery, which is characterized by the brightness recovery process of the light area, is evaluated. Lastly, the process of light expansion in the disaster area is analyzed to evaluate the speed and efficiency of economic expansion.

Highlights

Following the accelerated pace of global economic integration and the rapid growth of population and social wealth, the large damage caused by earthquake disasters is characterized by far-reaching effects and long recovery periods (Pielke et al, 2008)
Due to the lack of detailed post-disaster economic recovery tracking data, economic policy planning is divided based on the amount of direct economic losses, which results in insufficient policy sustainability (Song et al, 2017)
When planning the allocation of post-disaster aid funds and medium- and long-term economic policies, decision makers mainly rely on the current market value of production data in the disaster area and the reconstruction cost of the production environment

Summary

Introduction

Following the accelerated pace of global economic integration and the rapid growth of population and social wealth, the large damage caused by earthquake disasters is characterized by far-reaching effects and long recovery periods (Pielke et al, 2008). Economic recovery and reconstruction are important targets for post-earthquake economic policies (Lyles et al, 2014). When planning the allocation of post-disaster aid funds and medium- and long-term economic policies, decision makers mainly rely on the current market value of production data in the disaster area and the reconstruction cost of the production environment. Insufficient estimates of indirect losses are likely to result in gaps between aid funds and actual demand, even overlooking relatively remote disaster areas (Ge et al, 2010). It is important for post-disaster macroeconomic policies to insure that indirect economic losses and economic recovery in the affected areas are accurately assessed

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion