India’s CO2 emission pathways to 2050: What role can renewables play?

Abstract

Renewable energy can play an important role in India’s climate change mitigation, as India has great potential for renewables, especially solar and wind. This paper analyses the role of renewables to meet India’s possible 2050 climate change mitigation targets using a multi-region global energy system model called TIAM-UCL, where India is explicitly represented as a separate region. TIAM-UCL is a cost optimisation model. The climate policy is applied to all regions in the model based on equal per capita emissions of 1.3tCO2 by 2050. Analysis shows that renewable energy can play an important role to decarbonise the economy, especially the power sector. Two low-carbon scenarios are explored, the first allowing for carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology deployment and the second excluding this technology. In the first low-carbon scenario (LC1), the most critical renewable energy technologies in the power sector are biomass with CCS, solar and wind. In the second low-carbon scenario (LC2), without CCS, there is an even greater role for solar and wind. Over the whole Indian economy, by 2050 renewables contribute 57% of the total CO2 reductions in LC1 (relative to a reference scenario with no CO2 target) and 63% of the CO2 reductions in LC2.