Index system and methods for urban power grid operation risk assessment

Abstract

Urban power grid is a typical load center. According to the operational characteristics and structure of urban power grid, a complete set of urban grid operation risk index system where the calculation methods of each affiliated index is given, is proposed from the point of equipment direct loss, grid structure integrity failure, grid security margin and power grid load loss. On this basis, the paper makes use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to synthesize the affiliated index and draw the total risk index of power system to assess the risk level of power grid. Taking the Polish power grid as an example, the paper calculates and analyzes each affiliated index and the total risk index based on a preset contingency, and verifies the feasibility of the proposed risk assessment index system and methods. And the indices computed are for use by operators and operational engineers in the control room to assess system security levels as a function of existing and near-future network conditions.