Independents, not partisans, are more likely to hold and express electoral preferences based in negativity

Abstract

The contemporary political domain is characterized by widespread negativity. Much of this negativity is thought to be generated by strong partisans, who overall express more anger, animosity, and bias than weaker partisans. The present research proposes, however, that self-categorized political independents hold preferences based more in negativity than partisans do, making them more likely to frame their preference in oppositional terms, act on the basis of opposition (vs. support), and agree with opposition- (vs. support-) based messages. Five studies (N = 51,687) present evidence of this valenced pattern of independent-partisan differences. In Study 1, across five decades, U.S. independents' (vs. partisans') preferences were more reflective of negative (vs. positive) partisanship. In Study 2, across four presidential elections, a greater proportion of independents than partisans reported voting “against” (vs. “for”) a candidate. In Study 3, negative (vs. positive) attitudes better predicted independents' participatory behaviors relative to those of partisans. In Study 4, independents agreed more with negatively-framed (vs. positively-framed) political appeals, whereas the opposite was true of partisans. Independents' (vs. partisans') preferences were more negative before the current politically polarized era and their proportional increase reflects a broader shift toward negative preferences. Finally, Study 5 replicated Studies 1–2 in three non-political domains, including one where attitudes were positive overall. Implications are discussed for the relationship between partisanship and negativity, how independents differ psychologically from partisans, partisanship as a moderator of preference valence-framing effects, and the possibility of general dispositional tendencies to base, frame, and express one's political and non-political preferences negatively.