Indefinite detention or supervision for public protection when a life sentence is not available: Pathway outcomes among prisoners in one region

Abstract

Indeterminate sentences for Public Protection (IPPs) were introduced in England and Wales under the Criminal Justice Act 2003 for offenders not eligible for a life sentence but considered to pose a serious risk to the public. In 2012, new IPPs became illegal, in part after the European Court of Human Rights ruled in three cases that failure to make appropriate provision for rehabilitation services while the men were in prison breached their rights under Article 5 of the Convention and thus from arbitrary detention. People already sentenced under this provision, however, remained in the system. Humberside Indeterminate Public Protection Project (HIPPP) supports intensive case management of male IPP offenders still serving this sentence. To examine variables associated with pathway outcome among men under IPPs in one English region-Humberside. Our primary hypothesis was that programme engagement in prison would be significantly associated with release. The HM Prison and Probation Services National Delius (nDelius) and Offender Assessment System (OASys) were used to identify all men from the region subject to IPPs and beyond tariff (the fixed, punishment part of their sentence) and to retrieve data on the sentence, pathway status and specific risk factors. We used content analysis to identify variables of interest, and logistic regression models to explore associations of variables with different types of pathway outcome. A total of 82 men were identified, 34 of whom had ever been recorded as having been given a diagnosis of anti-social personality disorder (ASPD). Men experiencing relationship difficulties with professionals were significantly more likely to be denied release [Odds Ratio (OR) = 7.75, Confidence Interval (CI) 2.08-28.57], have a deferred parole (OR = 7.81, CI 1.59-38.46) or be awaiting parole (OR = 4.46, CI 1.09-18.18) compared with men released to the community or serving in an open prison. Completion of programmes was not associated with pathway outcome. A modest association between diagnosis of anti-social personality disorder and pathway outcome association was confounded by other variables. While programme completion did not have the expected association with release, relational difficulties with professionals proved significant barriers to release. This suggests that ambitions for the Offender Personality Disorder (OPD) pathway in supporting professionals to develop collaborative relationships with offenders are well founded. Part of this approach lies in sophisticated, psychologically informed case formulations which may help to discriminate between risk factors and personality disorder traits which have social rather than risk implications.