Incremental predictive value of adding the CHA2DS2-VASc score to the GRACE score for in-hospital mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

Abstract

Abstract Objective The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score is recommended for risk stratification for patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) by clinical guidelines. Data about comorbidities were not incorporated in the GRACE score. This study aimed to evaluate the incremental predictive value of adding the CHA2DS2-VASc score to the GRACE score for in-hospital mortality in patients with STEMI. Methods 7476 patients with STEMI were recruited and divided into five groups according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score (1, 2, 3, 4 and ≥5 points) at admission. The primary outcome was defined as in-hospital mortality, while the secondary outcomes were recurrent MI, stroke and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) during hospitalization. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to evaluate the association between the CHA2DS2-VASc score and outcomes. Incremental predictive performance of adding the CHA2DS2-VASc score to the GRACE score were evaluated through analysis of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results With the increase of CHA2DS2-VASc score, patients with STEMI tended to have more comorbidities, receive less evidence-based treatments and carry worse in-hospital outcomes. Multivariate logistic regressions demonstrated that the CHA2DS2-VASc score was an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality [OR (95% CI): 1.320 (1.238–1.407), p<0.001], recurrent myocardial infarction [OR (95% CI): 1.233 (1.086–1.401), p=0.001], stroke [OR (95% CI): 1.433 (1.207–1.702), p<0.001] and MACE [OR (95% CI): 1.146 (1.088–1.207), p<0.001]. The c statistic value of combining the GRACE score with the CHA2DS2-VASc score was significantly higher than that of the GRACE score alone in predicting in-hospital mortality (0.784, 95% CI: 0.774–0.793 vs. 0.769, 95% CI: 0.760–0.779, z=4.180, p<0.001). The addition of the CHA2DS2-VASc score to the GRACE score resulted in significantly improved predictive performance for in-hospital mortality, with a NRI of 0.356 (95% CI: 0.280–0.432, p<0.001) and a IDI of 0.013 (95% CI: 0.009–0.018, p<0.001). Conclusion The CHA2DS2-VASc score was an independent predictor of in-hospital outcomes in patients with STEMI. Compared to the GRACE score alone, the addition of the CHA2DS2-VASc score to the GRACE score improved the predictive performance for in-hospital mortality in patients STEMI. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Receiver operating characteristic curve