Increasing the information content of realized volatility forecasts

Abstract

Abstract Assuming N available calendar days, each with M intraday returns, the realized volatility literature suggests creating N end-of-day estimators by summing the M squared returns from each particular date. Instead of this “Calendar” [realized variance (RV)] approach, we propose a “Rolling” [rolling RV (RRV)] approach that simply sums trailing M returns at each timestamp, regardless if all M returns belong to the same calendar date. When estimating an out-of-sample 1-day realized volatility model, the former results in an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression with N−1 datapoints while the latter incorporates M(N−2)+1 datapoints, effectively lowering the standard errors, and potentially resulting in more accurate forecasts. We compare both models for the S&P 500 and 26 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks; our results generally suggest that the Rolling approach yields both statistically and economically significant superior out-of-sample performance over the traditional Calendar approach.