Abstract

ABSTRACTRecent years have seen significant growth in methamphetamine use among patients at Youth Integration Centers (Centros de Integración Juvenil) in Mexico. Previous studies identified a cycle of expansion of cocaine use in patients with these characteristics: it began in the North Western Region, spread to the Western and Central regions and subsequently to the rest of the country. It took about a decade to cover national territory, with lifetime prevalence tending to stabilize at 70%. This study conducts national and regional linear and nonlinear trend analyses of a cycle of expansion of lifetime prevalence of methamphetamine use and the proportion of methamphetamine as a main impact drug between 2010 and 2016, and makes projections for the period between the 2016 and 2019. Results show linear and quadratic increases at the national and regional levels. The most pronounced trends are present in western, north-western, south-central, north-central, north-eastern and central regions. For the second half of this decade, sustained growth of methamphetamine use in patients is predicted; with methamphetamine consolidate its place as the second main drug for which treatment is sought. Findings may enable professionals to be better prepared to address this problem. This phenomenon could subsequently spread to the general population.

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