Abstract
Precipitation-related extremes are among the most impact-relevant consequences of a warmer climate, particularly for China, a region vulnerable to global warming and with a large population. Understanding the impacts and risks induced by future extreme precipitation changes is critical for mitigation and adaptation planning. Here, extreme precipitation changes under different levels of global warming and their associated impacts on populations in China are investigated using multimodel climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and population projections under Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Heavy precipitation would intensify with warming across China at a rate of 6.52% (5.22%–8.57%) per degree of global warming. The longest dry spell length would increase (decrease) south (north) of ~34°N. The low warming target of the Paris Agreement could substantially reduce the extreme precipitation related impacts compared to higher warming levels. For the area weighted average changes, the intensification in wet extremes could be reduced by 3.22%, 9.42% and 16.70% over China, and the lengthening of dry spells could be reduced by 0.72%, 4.75% and 5.31% in southeastern China, respectively, if global warming is limited to 1.5 °C as compared to 2, 3 and 4 °C. The Southeastern China is the hotspot of enhanced impacts due to the dense population. The impacts on populations induced by extreme precipitation changes are dominated by climate change, while future population redistribution plays a minor role.
Highlights
Global-scale warming is unequivocal over the past century and is expected to continue under the continued emissions of greenhouse gases [1]
We aim to address the following questions: (1) how does extreme precipitation change with global warming over China and what are the associated impacts on populations? (2) How much impact is reduced by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C compared to higher thresholds? (3) What are the relative roles of changes in climate and populations on the impacts? Such questions are critical for both policymakers and the public, allowing for the development of comprehensive adaptation strategies
The impact of climate change on population depends on the population distribution (Fig. 2a)
Summary
Global-scale warming is unequivocal over the past century and is expected to continue under the continued emissions of greenhouse gases [1]. The warming has exerted adverse impacts on ecosystems, human society, and the economy all over the world, which are mainly related to changes in climate extremes [2]. This is especially the case for China, a region vulnerable to global warming, due to the influences from the East Asian monsoon, complex topography, and the large population [3,4]. The economic losses resulting from disasters related to climate and weather extremes are estimated to be more than 200 billion Yuan per year since 1990, amounting to 2.37% of the gross domestic product in China [5].
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